The NEP-LTV Blog

September 27, 2010

This blog is an experiment to explore the feasibility of scientific discussion on an Economics blog. NEP-LTV disseminates every week new working papers in the field of Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty. Among them, the NEP-LTV editor selects one to be discussed. Everyone is invited to comment. Try to stay civil, or your comments will be removed. And encourage others to read or join in the discussion.

Tackling social exclusion: evidence from Chile

April 7, 2016
By: Pedro Carneiro (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London) ; Emanuela Galasso (Institute for Fiscal Studies) ; Rita Ginja (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Uppsala)
We study an innovative welfare program in Chile which combines a period of frequent home visits to households in extreme poverty, with guaranteed access to social services. Program impacts are identified using a regression discontinuity design, exploring the fact that programme eligibility is a discontinuous function of an index of family income and assets. We find strong and lasting impacts of the program on the take up of subsidies and employment services. These impacts are important only for families who had little access to the welfare system prior to the intervention.

Import competition and the great U.S. employment sag of the 2000s

April 7, 2016
By: Daron Acemoglu ; David Autor ; David Dorn ; Gordon H. Hanson ; Brendan Price
Even before the Great Recession, U.S. employment growth was unimpressive. Between 2000 and 2007, the economy gave back the considerable employment gains achieved during the 1990s, with a historic contraction in manufacturing employment being a prime contributor to the slump. We estimate that import competition from China, which surged after 2000, was a major force behind both recent reductions in U.S. manufacturing employment and—through input-output linkages and other general equilibrium channels—weak overall U.S. job growth. Our central estimates suggest job losses from rising Chinese import competition over 1999 through 2011 in the range of 2.0 to 2.4 million.
Keywords: Trade flows, labor demand
JEL: F16 J23

Early maternal employment and non-cognitive outcomes in early childhood and adolescence: evidence from British birth cohort data

April 7, 2016


By: Warn N. Lekfuangfu ; Nattavudh Powdthavee ; Andrew E. Clark ; George Ward
We analyse the relationship between early maternal employment and child emotional and behavioural outcomes in early childhood and adolescence. Using rich data from a cohort of children born in the UK in the early 1990s, we find little evidence of a strong statistical relationship between early maternal employment and any of the emotional outcomes. However, there is some evidence that children whose mother is in full-time employment at the 18th month have worse behavioural outcomes at ages 4, 7, and 12.We suggest that these largely insignificant results may in part be explained by mothers who return tofull-time work earlier being able to compensate their children: we highlight the role of fathers’ time investment and alternative childcare arrangements in this respect.
Keywords: child outcomes; maternal employment; well-being; conduct; ALSPAC
JEL: D1 I1 J6

What do Germans think and know about income inequality? A survey experiment

April 7, 2016
By: Carina Engelhardt (Leibniz University of Hannover, School of Economics and Management) ; Andreas Wagener (Leibniz University of Hannover, School of Economics and Management)
Germans are unable to assess their own position in the income distribution of their country and do not know much about income inequality and stratification. They are well aware of their ignorance. Germans would prefer society to be more egalitarian than they perceive it. Providing accurate information about the income distribution does not change this preference for more redistribution – except among those who learn that they are net contributors in the German tax-transfer system.
Keywords: Biased perceptions, preferences for redistribution, Germany.
JEL: H53 D72 D31

More Unequal, But More Mobile? Earnings Inequality and Mobility in OECD Countries

April 7, 2016


By: Garnero, Andrea (OECD) ; Hijzen, Alexander (OECD) ; Martin, Sébastien (OECD)
This paper provides comprehensive cross-country evidence on the relationship between earnings inequality and intra-generational mobility by simulating individual earnings and employment trajectories in the long-term using short panel data for 24 OECD countries. On average across countries, about 25% of earnings inequality in a given year evens out over the life cycle as a result of mobility. Moreover, mobility is not systematically higher in countries with more earnings inequality in general. However, a positive and statistically significant relationship is found only in the bottom of the distribution. This reflects the role of mobility between employment and unemployment and not that of mobility up and down the earnings ladder.
Keywords: intra-generational mobility, life-time inequality, earnings-experience profiles, simulation
JEL: E24 J30 J62 O57

The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade

March 29, 2016
By: David H. Autor ; David Dorn ; Gordon H. Hanson
China’s emergence as a great economic power has induced an epochal shift in patterns of world trade. Simultaneously, it has challenged much of the received empirical wisdom about how labor markets adjust to trade shocks. Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adjustment costs and distributional consequences. These impacts are most visible in the local labor markets in which the industries exposed to foreign competition are concentrated. Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in U.S. industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize. Better understanding when and where trade is costly, and how and why it may be beneficial, are key items on the research agenda for trade and labor economists.
JEL: F14 J23 J31

Partners in Crime: Schools, Neighborhoods and the Formation of Criminal Networks

March 29, 2016
By: Stephen B. Billings ; David J. Deming ; Stephen L. Ross
Why do crime rates differ greatly across neighborhoods and schools? Comparing youth who were assigned to opposite sides of newly drawn school boundaries, we show that concentrating disadvantaged youth together in the same schools and neighborhoods increases total crime. We then show that these youth are more likely to be arrested for committing crimes together – to be “partners in crime”. Our results suggest that direct peer interaction is a key mechanism for social multipliers in criminal behavior. As a result, policies that increase residential and school segregation will – all else equal – increase crime through the formation of denser criminal networks.
JEL: I21 I24


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